Analysis by Region - North America
We expect GDP growth slowed sharply in Q1, though the underwhelming performance reflects a slower inventory build and weaker exports. While we believe the economy will prove resilient to rising headwinds from higher inflation and a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle, risks are tilted to the downside, and our yield curve models signal increased risk of a harder landing in 2023. We see real GDP growing 3.1% in 2022 and slowing meaningfully to 2% in 2023.
- US: Rapid inflation to spur aggressive Fed policy tightening
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term growth outlook
- Key drivers of the forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic Risk Evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Policy
- Politics
Research Assistance
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