Analysis by Region - MENA - Morocco
The Moroccan economy entered recessionary territory in Q1 2023, as some key sectors took strain amid rising costs and tightening financial conditions. Although agricultural sector growth moved into positive territory in the first quarter of the year and the recovery is expected to extend into Q2 2023, farmers still face low rainfall and rising temperatures. This will keep agricultural production below its five-year historical average this year, which together with a domestic backdrop marked by high inflation and elevated interest rates will limit economic growth. We have cut our forecast for real GDP growth by 0.8 ppt to 1.6% in 2023. Over the medium term, we forecast an annual average real GDP growth rate of 3.6%.
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