Analysis by Region - MENA
We've kept our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Turkey at a below-consensus 1.9%, given our pessimistic view on domestic demand. This is lower than the 2.7% expansion we forecast for this year. We see no noticeable impact from Donald Trump's second presidency on Turkey's near-term outlook – Turkey's trade deficit with the US makes it an unlikely target of potential tariffs. The domestic outlook for inflation remains the sole driver of the policy path.
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