Analysis by Region - Latin America - Argentina
We upgraded Argentina’s GDP growth by 0.6ppt to 3.2% as data for early Q2 point to a robust recovery in the manufacturing sector while soaring inflation hints at economic overheating. We expect a slowdown in H2 2022 triggered by aggressive monetary tightening – the central bank has already raised rates by 14ppts this year. Yet expansive fiscal policies, such as higher wages, have backed consumption until now. We have cut our 2023 GDP forecast by 0.5ppt to just 0.6%.
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