Analysis by Region - Latin America

Analysis by Region - Latin America

Surging energy commodity prices have greatly supported Colombian assets. The Colombian peso (COP) has appreciated by about 4% against the US dollar so far in March, but we think recent local gains will be short lived. We see the outcome of the recent legislative election results as unfavourable, and the worsening fiscal outlook will likely dent optimism. Based on our commodity price assumptions, we expect the currency to trade at around COP4,000/US$ by the end of the year.


Colombia: Policy tightening to moderate the commodity price boost
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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