Analysis by Region - Europe - Ukraine
Following a contraction by about 45% in March, the economy started to adjust in April, judging from high-frequency alternative sources of data. But this adjustment appears to have plateaued in May, as broken supply chains, destroyed infrastructure, displaced population and fuel shortages put a cap on the degree to which the economy can adapt. Such trends are consistent with our expectation that the GDP will shrink by about 35% y/y this year, as prolonged fighting in parts of Ukraine is partially offset by adjustment in the rest of the regions.
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