Analysis by Region - Europe - Russia
We have maintained our GDP forecasts of a 10.9% contraction in 2022 and a 3.3% decline in 2023. While GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.7% y/y in Q1, this mainly reflects buoyant growth in January-February, before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Having already banned coal imports, the EU is currently considering further sanctions to restrict oil and gas imports from Russia, which presents a downside risk to Russia's export and growth outlook.
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