Analysis by Region - Europe
According to the Ministry of Economy, Ukraine's GDP likely contracted by 16% in Q1, which is consistent with a contraction of about 45% in March. But survey data from April suggests the country has started to adjust to "war economy" conditions. We still see the economy shrinking by about 35% y/y this year, as prolonged fighting in parts of Ukraine is partially offset by adjustment in the rest of the regions.
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