Analysis by Region - Europe
Ukraine's economy has likely contracted by about 40%-45% in the one month since Russia's invasion compared to pre-crisis levels. Our forecast for the rest of the year depends crucially on how long the fighting will last. Judging by Russia’s stalled offensive, we base our forecast on the assumption that the acute phase of the war will not extend beyond May, at which point a tentative recovery may begin. In this baseline scenario, we see GDP contracting by 34.1% in 2022 before recovering by 4.3% in 2023. There are both upside and downside risks to this forecast.
- Ukraine: Russia's invasion causes economic collapse
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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