Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Zambia
We have revised our GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 2.4% from 2.1%, reflecting the impact of a slower-than-expected pickup in inflation and greater kwacha resilience on household expenditure and private sector consumption. That being said, we retain a below-consensus forecast on this year's growth owing to our expectation for a narrowing goods trade surplus in H2 and the passthrough effects of fiscal austerity. Weak performance in the extractive sector is expected to persist in the short term.
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