Our GDP growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y for 2024 and 3.5% y/y for 2025. The steady recovery in oil production has continued, about in line with our forecast. The country will likely reach 1mn bpd output next year, as foreign oil licences continue. After July's elections, our baseline continues to be for President Nicolás Maduro to be re-elected with current economic sanctions maintained.
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