We have revised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Uruguay down by 0.1ppt to 2.4%, while maintaining our estimate for next year at 2.3%, broadly in line with consensus. We expect domestic demand to strengthen, driven by robust private consumption, supported by higher real wages. This should offset a negative contribution from net trade. However, risks remain tilted to the downside, including a stronger-than-expected La Niña, restrictive monetary policy, and the uncertainty of the external environment.
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