We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.2ppts to 2.6%. This reflects the impact of expected reciprocal across-the-board tariffs between the US and EU from Q2. Given the precarious state of the public finances, there is little scope for a delay in planned fiscal consolidation to offset the drag from greater trade restrictions and trade policy uncertainty. We expect these effects to build over time, so we have also lowered our 2026 GDP forecast by 0.5ppts to 2.6%.
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