Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine



We still expect the Ukrainian economy will grow by 3.7% y/y this year and 3.6% next, as the war with Russia is set to last through most of 2025. As conflict intensifies and attacks on energy infrastructure have destroyed about half of generation capacity, the economic recovery has slowed down and we think it will cool further into winter.


Ukraine: Amid a bleak outlook, the G7 $50bn loan is a silver lining
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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