Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Ukraine
We estimate Ukraine's economy has expanded by about 3.8% y/y in 2024 and forecast it will grow by 3.5% y/y in 2025. Strong domestic demand, both private and public, as well as continued functioning of the Black Sea trade corridor are the key drivers of growth, both this year and next. But intensified labour and energy shortages, renewed losses of territory and assets to Russia, and the weaker 2024 harvest are serving as drags on the economy.
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