Despite Donald Trump's efforts, a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains elusive, with Russia so far rejecting the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire by making it conditional on sanctions relief. Even if achieved, this type of ceasefire would be largely symbolic. We therefore base our Ukraine forecast on the assumption that war will continue through most of 2025, with a ceasefire reached by 2026. We still anticipate GDP growth of 3.3% this year, and 5% in 2026.
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