Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Senegal

Senegal’s economy expanded by only 3.1% on a cumulative basis in H1 2024. Over this period, the primary and tertiary sectors grew by 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively. Concurrently, the secondary sector – which has been flagged as a key source of growth due to oil and gas projects in the country – expanded by just 1.0% in H1. The start of oil production in June ignited a jump in mining activity within the industrial sector, but much of this was offset by the slumping manufacturing industry. We have lowered our real GDP growth prediction for 2024 to 5.7% while lifting our prediction for next year to 8.0%. Our optimistic 2025 outlook hinges on several factors, most notably the timely commencement of gas production, a renewed fiscal consolidation path that unlocks further IMF support, and sustained low inflation.