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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Saudi Arabia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Dec 12, 2025
Length 7 Pages
SKU # OFE20650272

Description

Q3 national accounts data showed the economy expanding by 5% y/y, slightly softer than the flash estimate, but still signalling that Saudi Arabia is heading into year-end with solid momentum. On the expenditure side, growth was driven primarily by a 19.6% surge in real exports, while retail and utilities posted the strongest sectoral outturns, rising 5.4% and 6.9% y/y, respectively. We expect real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2025, with the pace moderating to 4.3% and 4.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively, as softer oil prices begin to weigh on oil-sector activity.

Table of Contents

7 Pages
Saudi Arabia: Softer oil prices will add to fiscal pressure in 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Politics
Economic policy

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