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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 27, 2026
Length 9 Pages
SKU # OFE20872824

Description

We've cut our 2026 GDP forecast for Russia to a 0.1% contraction as we expect the impact of sanctions on exports and the tight policy mix to tip the economy into recession this winter. With budgetary spending no longer providing an impetus to output growth and monetary policy remaining stringent, wage growth is the only factor supporting demand.

Table of Contents

9 Pages
Russia: Activity to slow in early 2026 as fiscal policy tightens
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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