We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.1ppts to 1.7%. We see signs that the economy retained momentum towards the end of 2024, so now expect some of the momentum will carry over into early this year. High budgetary spending in December will also support growth in Q1. But recent US sanctions will likely cause a drop in oil export volumes over a two- to three-month horizon and weigh on growth.
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