Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia



We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 1.6% due to signs that activity is losing momentum following significant monetary policy tightening in the last few months. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgages begins to discourage consumer spending. In December, domestic demand will receive a fillip from the end-year increase in budget spending. But by mid-2025, this support will wane.


Russia: Inflation is getting out of control
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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