We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 1.6% due to signs that activity is losing momentum following significant monetary policy tightening in the last few months. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgages begins to discourage consumer spending. In December, domestic demand will receive a fillip from the end-year increase in budget spending. But by mid-2025, this support will wane.