Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia



We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.2ppts to 1.6% due to signs that economic activity is losing momentum following the significant monetary policy tightening in the last few months. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgages begins to bite. In December, demand will receive a fillip from the recently approved increase in budget spending. But by mid-2025, its support will wane.


Russia: Inflation is stubbornly high despite monetary tightness
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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