Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia



We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.3ppts to 3.6% to reflect disappointing Q2 national accounts data. Household demand, which propelled growth in H1, is slowing down as the prohibitively high cost of unsubsidised loans and mortgages begins to bite. But we've raised our 2025 GDP forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.8% after the government relaxed fiscal policy late this year.


Russia: Fiscal policy relaxes as monetary policy tightens more
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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