Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Russia
We've increased our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Russia by 0.1ppt to 3.9% to reflect an upward revision to the Q2 GDP growth reading. We've also raised our 2025 forecast by 0.1ppt to 1.7% GDP growth. But we expect the economy to start cooling in H2 because of tighter monetary conditions. We see initial signs that household credit growth is moderating following 300bps of rate hikes implemented in Q3. Wage growth that had propelled buoyant household demand appears to be losing steam, corroborating our expectation that sequential GDP growth will gradually slow to 0.5% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q4 from 1% in Q1.
- Russia: Demand appears to be moderating
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Risk warnings
- What to watch out for
- Exposure to key global risks
- Long-term prospects
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments and structure of trade
- Policy
- Politics
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