We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Romania by 0.5ppts to 2.1%. This reflects our view that delays stemming from the presidential election re-run and a larger-than-expected deficit at the start of this year mean that the government will have to implement additional consolidation measures in H2 2025 to meet its fiscal targets. Meanwhile, greater global trade policy uncertainty is also expected to weigh on the outlook. However, we have only trimmed our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 2.5% given the boost to external demand from increased European government spending.
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