Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania



We've cut our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Romania to 1.3%, due to historical data revisions. Although domestic demand remains solid, the economy's weak supply-side has been unable to keep pace, resulting in a large drag from net trade. With these dynamics unlikely to unwind in the near-term, we expect annual GDP growth to slow this year. The carryover effects from recent revisions mean we have also downgraded our 2025 growth forecast by 0.1ppt to 3.1%.


Romania: Statistical revisions prompt growth downgrade
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings.
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Politics and policy

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