Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Romania
Economic growth in Q4 2021 has been revised to a 0.1% q/q contraction from a 0.5% q/q decline previously. Following downward revisions to previous quarters in 2021, GDP growth has been revised down to 5.8% from 6.1% last month. All Covid containment restrictions have now been removed in Romania, although the conflict in Ukraine will have a negative impact on growth through increased inflationary pressures and supply chain issues. Therefore, we have cut our 2022 GDP growth forecast by 0.5ppts to 3%, but downside risks to our forecast remain.
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