We've nudged up our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppts to 3.3% and kept our 2026 call unchanged at 3.8%. We estimate the economy returned to growth in Q4 2024, though at a modest pace. We expect investment will predominantly drive the pickup in the recovery this year due to the boost in EU-funded outlays. We also expect some improvement in exports. Still, we think subdued foreign demand and high interest rates at home will prevent over-4% growth.
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