Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

We've raised our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.3ppts to 3.5% as a solid Q4 2024 result generated a stronger carryover effect into this year. High frequency data have so far been positive this year, indicating that activity has continued to expand at a good pace in Q1. Still, we have trimmed our 2026 GDP growth forecast by 0.2ppts to 3.2%, with balanced risks around the call.


Poland: Brighter near-term prospects amid stronger consumption
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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