We've trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppts to 3.2% and kept our 2026 growth call unchanged at 3.8%. We think the recovery has resumed in Q4, indicated by the encouraging high frequency data for October. The inflow of EU funding will support activity, but the weak external environment and particularly the stagnant German economy, as well as high interest rates, will keep a lid on the pace of the rebound over the near term.
Poland: Growth to strengthen next year as investment picks up