Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland

Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland



We've trimmed our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Poland by 0.1ppts to 3.2% and kept our 2026 growth call unchanged at 3.8%. We think the recovery has resumed in Q4, indicated by the encouraging high frequency data for October. The inflow of EU funding will support activity, but the weak external environment and particularly the stagnant German economy, as well as high interest rates, will keep a lid on the pace of the rebound over the near term.


Poland: Growth to strengthen next year as investment picks up
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term growth outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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