Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Poland
Poland's economy had a strong start to this year, with GDP expanding 2.5% q/q in Q1, beating our and consensus expectations. But despite substantial support from fiscal policy and solid nominal wage growth shielding real incomes, we continue to expect a marked slowdown in growth going forward. This is due to worsening consumer sentiment because of rising inflation, while tighter financial conditions are leading firms to scale down or even scrap investment plans altogether. Therefore, we have boosted our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 5.7% to reflect large carry-over effects, but have cut our 2023 growth expectation by 1.7ppts to 1.8%.
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