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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Philippines

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Jan 26, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20872832

Description

We lowered our GDP growth forecast in the Philippines to 5.4% y/y in 2026, down from 5.6%, due to persistent headwinds. Our 2025 growth estimate remain at 4.9% y/y. Activity this year will be supported by the 2025 rate cuts and lower-than-expected inflation driving up household consumption. However, unexpected policy shifts, softer global demand, and ongoing geopolitical tensions will continue to pose significant downside risks.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Philippines: Moderate recovery on the way as BSP eyes another cut
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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