Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru

We have kept our GDP growth forecast for Peru unchanged at 2.6% for 2025, down 0.7ppts from last year. Private consumption will continue to be the main driver, supported by low inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a stable labor market. However, we expect net trade to drag on the economy, given global uncertainty around the potential for a Trump-led tariff war.


Peru: Steady growth outlook but risks tilted to the downside
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments
Policy and politics

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