Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Peru
We expect GDP growth for Peru of 3.0% in 2024 and in 2025, driven by private consumption and a rebound in investment after last year’s recession. Our forecast reflects slower quarterly growth in H2 2024 as activities normalize after El Niño hit primary activities hard in Q1. We've nudged up our 2024 forecast by 0.1ppt due to the positive effect of pension drawdowns on private consumption amid lower inflation and flexible financial conditions.
- Peru: Social unrest could dent economic prospects
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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