Nigeria’s fortunes appear to be turning around. In the final quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted real GDP growth reached 4.4% y/y, the highest growth rate since Q3 2021 (4.5% y/y). The non-oil economy drove the national growth increase, while the oil sector expanded at a slower pace. We remain cautiously optimistic that the decline in CPI inflation and lower borrowing costs will support consumption spending and business activity over the medium term. Additionally, higher oil production will likely amplify these gains, while expanding refining capacity will shore up growth in the manufacturing sector. As a result, we have raised our real GDP growth forecast to 3.5% for 2025 and adjusted our medium-term predictions upward.
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