Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
The IMF recently lowered its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2024, with the impact of severe flooding and insecurity at the heart of its concerns. Conversely, we are satisfied that our real GDP growth forecast of 2.8% for the year remains valid. Nigeria's purchasing managers' index posted monthly contractionary readings in Q3 2024 – setting the scene for a slowdown in growth during the quarter. Likewise, our medium-term growth outlook is downbeat: we anticipate a marginal uptick to 2.9% in 2025 as private sector activity should remain weak and high interest rates could curtail private consumption.
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