Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nigeria
The Nigerian economy performed slightly better than expected in the second quarter of the year, with real GDP growth accelerating to 3.2% y/y. Although the oil sector expanded by 10.2% y/y in Q2, the outturn may be ascribed to favourable base effects. Given the higher-than-expected growth rate in Q2 and an upward revision in Q1’s annual print, we now think the West African economy will grow by 2.8% in 2024, higher than our previous forecast of 2.6% but marginally lower than 2.9% in 2023. Positive developments around the Dangote Refinery have also prompted us to lift our real GDP growth forecast to 2.9% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.
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