Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Nicaragua
We've raised our GDP growth forecasts for Nicaragua, by 1.3ppts to 2.4% for this year and by 1.2ppts to 2.2% for 2025. This follows a surprising growth of 4.6% last year. Our forecasts are below consensus of 3.0% for 2024-2025. Early data suggest a pronounced decline in the agricultural sector and slower growth in the construction industry in line with weaker remittances inflows compared to previous years. Still, higher public spending and exports will partly offset the slowdown in private demand. Stricter US sanctions pose a downside risk on the economy.
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