The Mozambican economy entered 2025 severely weakened: fiscal revenues have declined, inflation has increased, and investor confidence has dented in the wake of October's disputed general elections. The spate of violent protests and strikes caused hundreds of deaths and a sharp contraction in GDP in Q4. Recent talks between the new government and the main presidential rival to ease post-election tensions suggest that business conditions could soon return to normal. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025 compared with 1.6% in 2024.
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