Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mozambique
We expect the commodity price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war will bolster exports and government revenues, which will offset the impact of higher import prices on inflation and consumer spending. The benefit to GDP will be limited though, as we have raised our 2022 economic growth forecast by only 0.2 pts to 3.4%. Furthermore, the risks to growth are skewed to the downside, due to the uncertainties relating to the outcome of the war in Ukraine, the adverse effects of tropical storms, and the escalating costs of the ongoing war with Islamist extremists in northern Mozambique.
- Mozambique: Growth forecast raised slightly, but risks skewed to downside
- Forecast overview
- Recent developments
- Short-term outlook
- Key drivers of our short-term forecast
- Economic risk
- Economic risk evaluation
- Background
- Economic development
- Structure of the economy
- Balance of payments
- Policy and politics
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