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Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Publisher Oxford Economics
Published Feb 06, 2026
Length 8 Pages
SKU # OFE20872796

Description

We have kept our 2026 GDP growth forecast for Mexico at 1.4% as we now expect a weaker start to this year following the stronger-than-expected end to 2025. Our forecast is broadly in line with the consensus, but risks remain tilted to the downside as our outlook hinges on a successful renegotiation of the USMCA free-trade agreement.

Table of Contents

8 Pages
Mexico: Strong Q4 2025 momentum is likely to fade in Q1 2026
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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