Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mexico

Our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Mexico remains at 1.7%, well above the consensus of 1.0%. This unchanged from last month and slightly above our 1.5% growth estimate for 2024. Risks to our forecast for this year are tilted to the downside, but we believe markets are overly pessimistic about the possible effects of the Donald Trump second presidency in the US.


Mexico: A challenging, but not disastrous, year is ahead
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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