We've cut our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Hungary by 0.2ppts to 1.5% this year and by 0.4ppts in 2026 to 3.2%. The downward revisions for this year reflect poor high-frequency readings for December, indicating the economy entered 2025 on a soft footing. The cut to the 2026 forecast is a consequence of incorporating the assumption of reciprocal 10% tariffs between the US and EU. With Hungary being one of the most exposed countries due to trade and market exposures, we continue to see risks to our medium-term growth forecasts as skewed to the downside.
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