Mali's real GDP growth last year surprised to the upside at 5.0% – higher than our prediction of 4.6%. Robust fixed investment inflows were the largest driver of the higher annual print, while a slowdown in exports dragged on growth. We forecast real GDP growth to slow over the next two years, reaching 4.4% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026. Malian gold production tumbled to 51.0 tonnes in 2024 from 66.5 tonnes the year before, according to the mining ministry. However, last year's figure excludes Barrick Gold's December production following its dispute with Mali's military-led government concerning a mining law introduced in 2023. If Barrick met its December forecast of 1.7 tonnes, total production dropped to 52.7 tonnes last year.
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