Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Mali
Mali's real GDP growth stood at 4.7% in 2023, lower than our previous estimate of 5.2%. We expect growth to remain broadly stable at 4.6% this year. According to the landlocked nation's mining ministry, industrial gold production is projected to slump to 57.3 metric tonnes (mt) in 2024 ‒ down from 66.5 mt produced in 2023. Despite this, the ministry noted that gold production could exceed its projections since output from major mining companies totalled 30.5 mt in H1 2024, above its initial forecast of 28.4 mt. Over the medium term, we forecast real GDP growth to slow further to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.9% in 2026.
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