Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
High-frequency indicators suggest that economic growth in Madagascar was robust in Q2 2024. The central bank's Indicator of Business Activities (IAE) recorded a 17.2% y/y expansion in the second quarter, primarily driven by improved tertiary sector growth. The IAE also suggests that momentum continued into the first two months of Q3 2024. Increased investment in the mining sector, a recovery in agricultural production, and ongoing improvements in construction, tourism, telecommunications, and transport activities should contribute to the economy performing better in 2024 than last year. We forecast economic growth of 4.2% in 2024. Risks to real GDP growth include elevated inflation, a depreciating ariary, and softening international vanilla prices.
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