Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Madagascar
Real GDP growth in Madagascar averaged 4.3% p.a. over the 2021-2022 period as the economy rebounded from a 7.1% Covid-19-induced contraction in 2020. That said, the country remains in a fragile state due to the lingering effects of adverse external events – such as the pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war – and the regular occurrence of domestic weather shocks. Also, consumer price pressures remain elevated while fiscal fragility persists. As such, Madagascar's near-term prospects paint a sombre picture. To combat this, authorities intend to action the Plan Emergence Madagascar (PEM) initiative, though this programme still lacks a quantified and timebound implementation strategy. As such, we foresee real GDP growth coming in at 3.9% in 2023.
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