Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Macedonia
We now forecast North Macedonia's GDP will grow by just 1.3% in 2023. Economic activity is being held back by the sharp rise in interest rates and slower export growth. But the resilience of investment, which supported growth of 2.2% in 2022, will drive a rebound to trend growth of around 3% in 2024-2026. This is underpinned by an ongoing rise in FDI, which is already at a regionally high level and is being driven by prospects for low-cost exports to the EU. However, accession to the EU will require several more years of difficult structural change.
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