Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Kazakhstan
We've left our 2024 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan unchanged at 3.9% and bumped up our 2025 forecast to 5.4% from 4.9%. While the planned expansion at the Tengiz oil field should boost growth next year, the main reason for the upgrade is the persistently strong lending growth fuelling household demand. On the supply side, stagnation in the mining sector is counterbalanced by growth in manufacturing and other sectors, boosted by the development of new trading routes and other positive spillovers from the war between Russia and Ukraine.
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