Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Indonesia

We expect Indonesia’s GDP growth will slow slightly to 4.8% y/y in 2025 and 2026, following a 5% expansion in 2024. Uncertainties surrounding US trade policy, heightened geopolitical risks, and weaker global growth are weighing on the country’s near-term outlook.


Indonesia: Growth is slowing as uncertainty mounts
Forecast overview
Recent developments
Short-term outlook
Key drivers of our short-term forecast
Economic risk
Economic risk evaluation
Risk warnings
What to watch out for
Exposure to key global risks
Long-term prospects
Alternative long-run scenarios
Background
Economic development
Structure of the economy
Balance of payments and structure of trade
Policy
Politics

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