We have cut our GDP growth forecast by 0.3ppts to 2.6%, due to a highly uncertain backdrop amid a potential trade war under Trump’s second term. Even though the direct impact of US tariffs should be relatively small, we consider that secondary effects such as lower global trade and less business confidence will hinder growth. Domestic demand will slow this year; but private consumption will continue to be one of the major drivers, boosted by stable inflation, flexible financial conditions, and a robust labor market.
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