Analysis by Region - Emerging Markets - Global EM
Our GDP growth forecast for 2025 stands at a mild 0.1ppt downward revision to 1.8% from last month, despite strong activity releases at the margin. The carryover from 2024 should amount to more than 1ppt to annual growth, which implies a subdued pace of quarterly expansions next year. We expect a second Donald Trump presidency to heighten global policy uncertainty, which is likely to cool domestic investment growth, feeding through labour market dynamics, which would slow household consumption momentum.
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